Mortgage Rates Predictions

by Chris Grau

Mortgage Rates Predictions  

The Fannie Mae Bond is +35bp on the day @ 100.16.  The 200 day moving average held up.  Initial Jobless claims, Empire State Index, Capacity Utilization, and Industrial Production all reported worse than expected results.  The Philadelphia Fed Index was better than predicted, but still bad.  With the recent talk of inflation concerns, the stock market will not be counting on any more stimuli from Fed Rate Cuts.  When we receive weak economic news investors hopefully will get back to considering Mortgage Backed Securities as low risk safe investments… bring Mortgage Rates Down!  We should see continued improvement in rates today.

Conforming No Points & 1%

30 Fixed  6.000% | 5.750%

15 Fixed 5.750% | 5.375%

7/1 Arm 5.875% | 5.375%

5/1 Arm 5.625% | 5.125%

3/1 Arm 6.125% | 5.000%

30 Fixed FHA 6.125%

15 Fixed FHA 6.250%

Jumbo No Points & 1%

30 Fixed N/A | 7.125%

15 Fixed 7.000% | 6.375%

7/1 Arm 6.875% | 6.375%

5/1 Arm 6.750% | 6.125%

3/1 Arm 6.500% | 5.750%

1/1 Arm n/a | 5.125%

Mortgage Bonds love Bad Economic Reports +38bp

by Chris Grau

Initial Jobless Claims 5/10 | Reported 371,000 | Est 365,000 | Prior 365,000 | MODEST

Empire State Index May | Reported -3.2 | Est 1.0 | Prior 0.6 | MODEST

Capacity Utilization Apr | Reported 79.7% | Est 80.2% | Prior 80.3% | MODEST

Industrial Production Apr | Reported -0.7% | Est -0.2% | Prior 0.3% | MODEST

Philly Fed Index May | Reported -15.6 | Est -20.0 | Prior -24.9 | ELEVATED

Mortgage Rates Predictions

by Chris Grau

Mortgage Rates Predictions  

The Fannie Mae Bond is -3bp on the day @ 99.62.  This morning the CPI Index was better than economist expected.  A modest CPI is a sign that inflation concerns may cool off.  The good inflation news benefited both the Stock and Bond market earlier this morning.  Unfortunately for mortgage rates, the stock market seams to be winning and some lenders have already increased rates this afternoon.  The 200 day moving average continues to be a solid support for bonds and if the Philly Fed Index is weak tomorrow we could see BETTER RATES TOMORROW.  The volatility is absolutely insane though.  If there are any layers or risk to your mortgage [ex. <720 credit, low down payment, ARM, JUMBO…] I still stand by my Lock and Close ASAP recommendation.  Notice the +.5% increase in a number of ARMs in the last couple of days!

Conforming No Points & 1%

30 Fixed  6.125% | 5.875%

15 Fixed 5.750% | 5.500%

7/1 Arm 5.500% | 5.375%

5/1 Arm 5.750% | 5.125%

3/1 Arm 5.625% | 5.000%

30 Fixed FHA 6.250%

15 Fixed FHA 6.375%

Jumbo No Points & 1%

30 Fixed N/A | 7.250%

15 Fixed 7.000% | 6.375%

7/1 Arm 6.875% | 6.375%

5/1 Arm 6.750% | 6.125%

3/1 Arm 6.500% | 5.750%

1/1 Arm n/a | 5.125%

CPI reports lower than expectations giving Mortgage Bonds a boost +9bp

by Chris Grau

Crude Inventories 5.10 | Reported [5.14] | Prior 5,654,000 | MODEST

Consumer Price Index [CPI] April | Reported 0.2% | Est 0.3% | Prior 0.3% | ELEVATED

Core-CPI April | Reported 0.1% | Est 0.2% | Prior 0.2% | ELEVATED

Retail Sales Rock the Bond Market Today!

by Chris Grau

Mortgage Rates Predictions May 12, 2008

by Chris Grau

Mortgage Rates Predictions  

The Fannie Mae Bond is -0bp on the day @ 100.44.  Mortgage Rates lost some ground as predicted Friday.  There are no important economic reports scheduled for release today.  Currently the Mortgage Bonds are resting on the 50 and 100 day moving averages.  This is a solid layer of support and hopefully will hold up today.  Rates should be FLAT today in expectation of Retail Sales tomorrow.

Conforming No Points & 1%

30 Fixed  6.000% | 5.750%

15 Fixed 5.625% | 5.375%

7/1 Arm 5.500% | 5.125%

5/1 Arm 5.375% | 4.875%

3/1 Arm 5.250% | 4.625%

30 Fixed FHA 6.000%

15 Fixed FHA 6.000%

Jumbo No Points & 1%

30 Fixed N/A | 7.125%

15 Fixed 6.750% | 6.250%

7/1 Arm 6.375% | 5.875%

5/1 Arm 6.250% | 5.625%

3/1 Arm 6.250% | 5.375%

1/1 Arm n/a | 4.750%