Crude Inventories Shock bond Market | -22bp

Crude Inventories | Reported -2,356,000 | MODEST

Crude Inventories initially shock the Bond market -22bp.

CPI meets expectations and Housing Starts Slump | +16bp

Housing Starts | Reported 947,000 | Est 1,025,000 | Prior 1,065,000 | MODEST

Building Permits | Reported 927,000 | Est 970,000 | Prior 984,000 | MODEST

Consumer Price Index [CPI] | Reported 0.3% | Est 0.3% | Prior 0% | ELEVATED

Core CPI [CCPI] | Reported 0.2% | Est 0.2% | Prior 0% | ELEVATED

Capacity Utilization | Reported 80.3% | Est 80.4% | Prior 80.9% | MODEST

Industrial Production | Reported 0.3% | Est -0.1% | Prior -0.5% | MODEST

PPI strong and Mortgage Rates Suffer

Empire State Index | Reported 0.6% | Est -16.0 | Prior -22.2 | MODEST

Producer Price Index [PPI] | Reported 1.1% | Est 0.4% | Prior 0.3% | MODEST

Core PPI [CPPI] | Reported 0.2% | Est 0.2% | Prior 0.5% | MODEST

Relatively-Hot PPI numbers reported due to the highest fuel  and food prices in 17 years.  The Core-PPI was at expectations of .2%.  The Empire State Survey was still weak, but better than expectations… and as usually the Bond Market reacted negatively -53bp currently. 

Tomorrow the very important Consumer Price Index will be reported.  CPI and Core CPI are significant inflation measures that could force the Mortgage Bond market below the solid support of both the 50 and 100 day moving averages.  The next level of support is the 200 day moving average -133bp below.  This could push mortgage rates up to the mid 6’s again, even with perfect credit.  With this risk and the rumored continued tightening of mortgage insurance companies coming in the near future, if you have an approval, I’d lock it.

Economic Reports 4.14 - 4.18

Retail Sales | Reported 0.2% | Est 0.1% | Prior -0.4% | ELEVATED

Retail Sales Ex Auto | Reported 0.1% | Est 0.2% | Prior -0.1% | ELEVATED

Empire State Index | Reported [4.15] | Est -16.0 | Prior -22.2 | MODEST

Producer Price Index [PPI] | Reported [4.15] | Est 0.4% | Prior 0.3% | MODEST

Core PPI [CPPI] | Reported [4.15] | Est 0.2% | Prior 0.5% | MODEST

Housing Starts | Reported [4.16] | Est 1,025,000 | Prior 1,065,000 | MODEST

Building Permits | Reported [4.16] | Est 970,000 | Prior 984,000 | MODEST

Consumer Price Index [CPI] | Reported [4.16] | Est 0.3% | Prior 0% | ELEVATED

Core CPI [CCPI] | Reported [4.16] | Est 0.2% | Prior 0% | ELEVATED

Capacity Utilization | Reported [4.16] | Est 80.4% | Prior 80.9% | MODEST

Industrial Production | Reported [4.16] | Est -0.1% | Prior -0.5% | MODEST

Crude Inventories | Reported [4.16] | MODEST

Feds Beige Book Survey | Reported [4.16] | MODEST

Inital Jobless Claims | Reported [4.17] | Est 385,000 | Prior 357,000 | MODEST

LEI | Reported [4.17] | Est 0.1% | Prior -0.3% | MINIMAL

Philly Fed Index | Reported [4.17] | Est -14.0 | Prior -17.4 | ELEVATED

Consumer Sentiment lowest in 26 years

Consumer Sentiment for APR | Reported 63.2 | Est 69.4 | Prior 69.5 | MODEST

Consumer Sentiment hit a 26 year low of 63.2.  Stocks had been off earlier today on news of General Electic earnings and Frontier Airlines files BK.

St. Louis Second Mortgages | 2nd Mortgage Rates 6.180%

Cornerstone Mortgage has Local Second Mortgage Rates from 6.180%.  The Fixed Second Mortgages are great for avoiding mortgage insurance and jumbo mortgage rates.  We can lend up to 95% loan to value and down to a 640 fico credit score.  The St. Louis Local Second Mortgages are available to $200,000.  Please contact me, Chris Grau, at 314-600-5410 for more information.

Mortgage Rates Predictions | 30 Fixed 5.625% 15 Fixed 5.375% FHA 5.500%

 

The US Trade deficit was significantly wider than expectations this morning.  Even with the Initial Jobless claims beating expectations, the Fannie Mae Mortgage Backed Securities are +12bp currently.  We ended the day yesterday with about +26bp so long term mortgage rates have seen some benefit.  The credit tightening has shown no signs of letting up in regards to mortgage lending.  United Guarantee [the Mortgage Insurance Company] sent notification yesterday that they will be making major overhauls to their mortgage insurance guidelines.  All of St. Louis will now be considered a declining market, limiting loan to values [LTV] to 90%.  They require a 680 credit score for conventional loans to $417,000.  Also, they will no longer insure cash out, A-Minus, Limited Doc, Second Homes, Condos, Investment Properties, Arms, and will require 5% down payment from the buyers own funds [no gifts or grants].  Let’s hope everyone doesn’t follow suit with this overreaction.  I recommend locking and closing if you are in a position to.

30 Fixed/apr | 5.625%/5.725%

15 Fixed/apr | 5.375%/5.475%

FHA/apr | 5.5%/5.95%

 

Economic Reports for 4.10.2008

Crude Inventories for 4/5 | Reported -3.2M | Prior 7,317,000 | MODEST

Initial Jobless Claims for 4/5 | Reported 357,000 | Est 380,000 | Prior 407,000 | MODEST

Balance of Trade for FEB | Reported -$62,300,000,000 | Est -$57,400,000,000 | Prior -$58,200,000,000 | MODEST

Economic Reports for April 7-11

FOMC Minutes for 3/18 | Reported [Tue 4.8] | ELEVATED

Crude Inventories for 4/5 | Reported [Wed 4.09] | Prior 7,317,000 | MODEST

Initial Jobless Claims for 4/5 | Reported [Thu 4.10] | Est 380,000 | Prior 407,000 | MODEST

Balance of Trade for FEB | Reported [Thu 4.10] | Est -$57,400,000,000 | Prior -$58,200,000,000 | MODEST

Consumer Sentiment for APR | Reported [Fri 4.11] | Est 69.4 | Prior 69.5 | MODEST

Employment Report for March | Bond Closed +62bp | 30F 5.750%

Unemployment Rate | Reported 5.1% | Est 5.0% | Prior 4.8% | ELEVATED

Hourly Earnings | Reported 0.3%  | Est 0.3% | Prior 0.3% | ELEVATED

Average Work Week | Reported 33.8 | Est 33.7 | Prior 33.7 | ELEVATED

Non-Farm Payroll | Reported -80,000 | Est -40,000 | Prior -63,000 | ELEVATED

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