Economic Indicators June 02
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index May | 49.6 | E 48.0 | P 48.6 | Elevated
The Institute for Supply Management’s Non-Manufacturing [ISM Service Index] comes in at 49.6 beating estimates of 48.0. The survey reporting below 50 still signifies contraction as opposed to growth, but since the report is not as bad as it could have been mortgage bonds may lose some more ground today.
Upcoming Economic Indicators June 02-06
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index May | [MON] | E 48.0 | P 48.6 | Elevated
ADP Employment Report May | [WED] | E -30,000 | P 10,000 | Elevated
Productivity Q1 | [WED] | E 2.5% | P 2.2% | Modest
ISM Non-Manufacturing May | [WED] | E 51.0 | P 52.0 | Modest
Crude Inventories 5/31 | [WED] | P -8,883,000 | Modest
Initial Jobless Claims 5/31 | [THU] | E 370,000 | P 372,000 | Modest
Non-Farm Payrolls May | [FRI] | E -52,000 | P -20.000 | Elevated
Unemployment Rate May | [FRI] | E 5.1% | P 5.0% | Elevated
Average Work Week May | [FRI] | E 33.7 | P 33.7 | Elevated
Hourly Earnings May | [FRI] | E 0.2% | P 0.1% | Elevated
Daily Economic Indicators May 30
Personal Spending April | 0.2% | E 0.2% | P 0.4% | Modest
Core PCE [PCE] Year over Year | 2.1% | P 2.1% | Elevated
Core PCE April | 0.1% | E 0.1% | P 0.2% | Elevated
Personal Income April | 0.2% | E 0.2% | P 0.3% | Modest
Chicago PMI May | 49.1 | E 48.5 | P 48.3 | Elevated
Consumer Sentiment May | 59.8 | E 59.5 | P 59.5 | Modest
Economic Indicators for May 29
Crude Inventories 5.25 | [10:30am] | P -5,317,000 | Modest
Initial Jobless Claims 5.24 | 372,000 | E 370,000 | P 368,000 | Modest
GDP Q1 | 0.9% | E 1.0% | P 0.6% | Modest
GDP Chain Deflator Q1 | 2.6% | E 2.6% | P 2.4% | Elevated
Economic Indicators May 28, 2008
Durable Goods Orders April | -0.5% | E -1.5% | P -0.3% | Modest
Upcoming Economic Indicators May 27-30
Consumer Confidence May | 57.2 | E 61.0 | P 62.2 | Modest
New Home Sales April | 526,000 | E 520,000 | P 509,000 | Modest
Crude Inventories 5.25 | [5.28] | P -5,317,000 | Modest
Durable Goods Orders April | [5.28] | E -1.5% | P -0.3% | Modest
GDP Q1 | [5.29] | E 1.0% | P 0.6% | Modest
GDP Chain Deflator Q1 | [5.29] | E 2.6% | P 2.4% | Elevated
Personal Spending April | [5.30] | E 0.2% | P 0.4% | Modest
Personal Consumption [PCE] April | [5.30] | P 2.1% | Elevated
Core PCE April | [5.30] | E 0.1% | P 0.2% | Elevated
Personal Income April | [5.30] | E 0.2% | P 0.3% | Modest
Chicago PMI May | [5.30] | E 49.5 | P 48.3 | Elevated
Consumer Sentiment May | [5.30] | E 60.0 | P 59.5 | Modest
Existing Home Sales match Expectations
Existing Home Sales April | Reported 4,890,000 | Est 4,850,000 | Prior 4,930,000 | MODEST
Oil and Inflation are taking their toll | Mortgage Bonds -50bp
Filed under: Economic Indicators, Mortgage Rates Predictions
Inital Jobless Claims 5/17 | Reported 365,000 | Est 370,000 | Prior 371,000 | MODEST
Initial Jobless claims report slightly better than expected this morning. The economy is in a rough spot with the Feds hands being tied because of their inflation fears. Oil hit $135 a barrel and Gold is up. Mortgage rates will have at least a .125% increase across the board this morning until the Bond bounces off the current level of support.
Grau Perspective on Mortgage Rates for Wednesday May 21
Filed under: Economic Indicators, Mortgage Rates Predictions
Crude Inventories 5/17 | Reported -5,317,000 | Prior 176,000 | MODEST
FOMC Minutes 4/30 | Reported [Wed] | ELEVATED
Mortgage Backed Securities are currently -22bp on the day trading at $100.62. We have seen solid gains the previous 5 trading days. Bond prices have varied from 99.4375 – 100.90625 yesterday. Today @ 2:00pm ET the Fed will release Minutes regarding last months Fed Meeting. With Oil hitting $132.00 a barrel today, inflation concerns and Food and Energy’s impact on the economy has to been on the Feds agenda. Now would be a good time to lock in some of those gains we have made the last few days since we could see INCREASING mortgage rates.