Mortgage Rates Predictions
June 3, 2008
June 3, 2008 | Rates are still heading higher…
Yesterday the Mortgage Bonds showed a solid recovery during the end of the day to close at 99.59 actually up +25bp from their open of 99.34. This was due to losses in the stock market. The 200 day moving average has still been the Mortgage Bonds personal struggle, currently at 99.51. This morning Mortgage Backed Securities seam to be losing the fight as they are down -19bp on the day at a price of 99.41. Today there are no scheduled economic indicators being released. The fate of Fannie Mae Bonds will be in the hands of stocks, oil, scheduled public speeches, and the 200 day moving average. Let’s hope tomorrow we get some bond friendly news to get mortgage rates lower again.
Daily Mortgage Rates Predictions June 02
June 2, 2008
Rates are still heading higher.
The ISM Non-Manufacturing Survey beats expectations this morning. This was the only scheduled economic indicator released today. Wachovia released it’s CEO Kennedy Thompson today due to continued backlash from Sub-Prime Mortgages. The Nation’s 5th largest bank lost half of its stock value from last year. With the ISM report being positive and looming inflation fears, the 200 day moving average appears to be out of reach for mortgage bonds any time soon. Currently, the Fannie Mae Mortgage Backed Securities are +9bp on the day at 99.28 on the news about Wachovia and struggling airlines. That is actually -12bp lower since the ISM reported at 10:00am. We will be keeping our eyes on the stock market to see signs of pain in the economy that may be helpful for low risk mortgage backed securities.
Daily Mortgage Rates Predictions
May 30, 2008
Rates are still heading higher… The 200 day moving average is a ceiling bonds can’t seam to break through.
This morning all of the economic indicators met expectations. Personal Income was up 0.2%, but inflation was also up, so consumers will feel no benefit of those gains. After 6 rough days for Mortgage Bonds there was a glimmer of hope this morning when bonds attempted to rally up to 99.53 [+50bp] on the day. The 200 Day moving average is at 99.48. Unfortunately, Mortgage Bonds hit the 200 Day moving average and declined to currently only being up +28bp on the day. We will be looking to next weeks economic indicators to see if Mortgage Bonds can break the 200 day ceiling of support.
Daily Mortgage Rate Predictions
May 29, 2008
Rates are heading higher… Looks like the 200 day moving average couldn’t hold.
The 200 day moving average was broken this morning. The GPD was lower than expectations of 1.0%, but showed growth from the 0.6% Q4 2007. Yesterday the Treasury Auction of 2 Year Notes was not received well. Today the Treasury will be selling 5 Year Notes at 1:00pm. The 200 Day moving average was an important line for bonds to cross. The last time it was broken mortgage rates ran to the upper 6’s. Currently the FNMA Bond is down -69bp at 98.78. This kind of volatility was unheard of last year.
Daily Mortgage Rates Predictions
May 28, 2008
Rates will be Heading Down since the 200 day moving average held up.
The better than estimated Durable Goods Orders helped drive Bond prices down to touch the 200 day moving average this morning. As predicted the floor of support at 99.46 held, but the -64bp loss will have cost us to lose at least .125% on the 30 Year Fixed Rates this morning. Crude Inventories will be reported shortly. Since the Mortgage Backed Securities are currently only down -34bp on the day [+9bp since most rates were issued and a long way from the -64bp] Mortgage Rates should be heading up. We will be closely monitoring the stock market to see how it reacts to the Crude Inventories, hopefully stock are down and Mortgage Bond prices increase giving us improved rates today. Tomorrow the GDP Chain Deflator signaling inflation under control would be what we need to get back in the 5’s.
Daily Mortgage Rates Predictions
May 27, 2008
Rates are heading higher.
Inflation is the name of the game still today. Even with the lowest consumer confidence report in 16 years, Mortgage Backed Securities can’t seam to recover. Consumer’s fear of rising fuel and food prices is the major contributor to the low Consumer Confidence report. The fact that new home sales beat estimates was another kick in gut for mortgage bonds. Currently the FNMA Mortgage Bond is -34bp on the day selling at $100.00. The San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen reminded us this afternoon that the Fed has lowered rates enough and will be sticking to their holding policy at the next fed meeting. Bonds are hurting and could touch the 200 day moving average at $99.44 [54bp lower!]. We will be keeping our eyes on the stock market this week and anxiously waiting for Thursday and Fridays economic indicators.
Oil and Inflation are taking their toll | Mortgage Bonds -50bp
May 22, 2008
Inital Jobless Claims 5/17 | Reported 365,000 | Est 370,000 | Prior 371,000 | MODEST
Initial Jobless claims report slightly better than expected this morning. The economy is in a rough spot with the Feds hands being tied because of their inflation fears. Oil hit $135 a barrel and Gold is up. Mortgage rates will have at least a .125% increase across the board this morning until the Bond bounces off the current level of support.
Feds Cut Rate is not going lower and Mortgage Bonds love it!
May 21, 2008
FOMC Minutes for April 30, 2008
The Fed met today at 2:00pm ET to release the Fed Minutes Report regarding the April 30th meeting that resulted in a -.25% cut bringing the Feds Cut Rate to 2.00%. They are still very concerned about inflation and unemployment. The Fed believes the economy is still weak and will continue to be in the near future. The Federal Reserve has decided not to continue cutting interest rates even with a sluggish economy. The negative economic news is helping mortgage bonds as investors realize they will not continue to get bailed out by the Fed boosting the economy with further cuts. This is one more reminder that Fed Rate Cuts do not equal lower Long Term Mortgage Rates. In fact the absence of more Fed Cuts is benefiting Mortgage Backed Securities as investors buy up low risk mortgage bonds.
Grau Perspective on Mortgage Rates for Wednesday May 21
May 21, 2008
Crude Inventories 5/17 | Reported -5,317,000 | Prior 176,000 | MODEST
FOMC Minutes 4/30 | Reported [Wed] | ELEVATED
Mortgage Backed Securities are currently -22bp on the day trading at $100.62. We have seen solid gains the previous 5 trading days. Bond prices have varied from 99.4375 - 100.90625 yesterday. Today @ 2:00pm ET the Fed will release Minutes regarding last months Fed Meeting. With Oil hitting $132.00 a barrel today, inflation concerns and Food and Energy’s impact on the economy has to been on the Feds agenda. Now would be a good time to lock in some of those gains we have made the last few days since we could see INCREASING mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rates Predictions
May 15, 2008
Mortgage Rates Predictions
The Fannie Mae Bond is +35bp on the day @ 100.16. The 200 day moving average held up. Initial Jobless claims, Empire State Index, Capacity Utilization, and Industrial Production all reported worse than expected results. The Philadelphia Fed Index was better than predicted, but still bad. With the recent talk of inflation concerns, the stock market will not be counting on any more stimuli from Fed Rate Cuts. When we receive weak economic news investors hopefully will get back to considering Mortgage Backed Securities as low risk safe investments… bring Mortgage Rates Down! We should see continued improvement in rates today.
Conforming No Points & 1%
30 Fixed 6.000% | 5.750%
15 Fixed 5.750% | 5.375%
7/1 Arm 5.875% | 5.375%
5/1 Arm 5.625% | 5.125%
3/1 Arm 6.125% | 5.000%
30 Fixed FHA 6.125%
15 Fixed FHA 6.250%
Jumbo No Points & 1%
30 Fixed N/A | 7.125%
15 Fixed 7.000% | 6.375%
7/1 Arm 6.875% | 6.375%
5/1 Arm 6.750% | 6.125%
3/1 Arm 6.500% | 5.750%
1/1 Arm n/a | 5.125%
(This information has been compiled for Real Estate Professionals and is not intended for public distribution as it does not comply with REG Z Truth-In-Lending disclosure requirements.)
