Mortgage Rates Predictions

 

Mortgage Rates Predictions  

The Fannie Mae Bond is -3bp on the day @ 99.62.  This morning the CPI Index was better than economist expected.  A modest CPI is a sign that inflation concerns may cool off.  The good inflation news benefited both the Stock and Bond market earlier this morning.  Unfortunately for mortgage rates, the stock market seams to be winning and some lenders have already increased rates this afternoon.  The 200 day moving average continues to be a solid support for bonds and if the Philly Fed Index is weak tomorrow we could see BETTER RATES TOMORROW.  The volatility is absolutely insane though.  If there are any layers or risk to your mortgage [ex. <720 credit, low down payment, ARM, JUMBO...] I still stand by my Lock and Close ASAP recommendation.  Notice the +.5% increase in a number of ARMs in the last couple of days!

 

Conforming No Points & 1%

30 Fixed  6.125% | 5.875%

15 Fixed 5.750% | 5.500%

7/1 Arm 5.500% | 5.375%

5/1 Arm 5.750% | 5.125%

3/1 Arm 5.625% | 5.000%

30 Fixed FHA 6.250%

15 Fixed FHA 6.375%

Jumbo No Points & 1%

30 Fixed N/A | 7.250%

15 Fixed 7.000% | 6.375%

7/1 Arm 6.875% | 6.375%

5/1 Arm 6.750% | 6.125%

3/1 Arm 6.500% | 5.750%

1/1 Arm n/a | 5.125%

 

(This information has been compiled for Real Estate Professionals and is not intended for public distribution as it does not comply with REG Z Truth-In-Lending disclosure requirements.)

Mortgage Rates Predictions May 12, 2008

 

Mortgage Rates Predictions  

The Fannie Mae Bond is -0bp on the day @ 100.44.  Mortgage Rates lost some ground as predicted Friday.  There are no important economic reports scheduled for release today.  Currently the Mortgage Bonds are resting on the 50 and 100 day moving averages.  This is a solid layer of support and hopefully will hold up today.  Rates should be FLAT today in expectation of Retail Sales tomorrow.

Conforming No Points & 1%

30 Fixed  6.000% | 5.750%

15 Fixed 5.625% | 5.375%

7/1 Arm 5.500% | 5.125%

5/1 Arm 5.375% | 4.875%

3/1 Arm 5.250% | 4.625%

30 Fixed FHA 6.000%

15 Fixed FHA 6.000%

Jumbo No Points & 1%

30 Fixed N/A | 7.125%

15 Fixed 6.750% | 6.250%

7/1 Arm 6.375% | 5.875%

5/1 Arm 6.250% | 5.625%

3/1 Arm 6.250% | 5.375%

1/1 Arm n/a | 4.750%

 

(This information has been compiled for Real Estate Professionals and is not intended for public distribution as it does not comply with REG Z Truth-In-Lending disclosure requirements.)

Mortgage Rates Predictions

 

The Fannie Mae Bonds -6bp on the day @ 100.88.  We saw .125% improvement in rates since yesterday.  Mortgage Rates are leaning towards INCREASING.

Conforming No Points & 1%

30 Fixed  5.875% | 5.625%

15 Fixed 5.375% | 5.125%

7/1 Arm 5.500% | 5.125%

5/1 Arm 5.250% | 4.875%

3/1 Arm 5.250% | 4.625%

30 Fixed FHA 6.000%

15 Fixed FHA 6.000%

Jumbo No Points & 1%

30 Fixed N/A | 7.125%

15 Fixed 6.625% | 6.125%

7/1 Arm 6.250% | 5.875%

5/1 Arm 6.125% | 5.500%

3/1 Arm 6.000% | 5.250%

1/1 Arm 7.000% | 4.750%

 

(This information has been compiled for Real Estate Professionals and is not intended for public distribution as it does not comply with REG Z Truth-In-Lending disclosure requirements.)

Initial Jobless Claims Still Dismal

Initial Jobless Claims | Reported 365,000 | Est 370,000 | Prior 380,000 | MODEST

The Initial Jobless claims report was in-line with expectations.  This initially boosted bond prices benefiting mortgage rates.  We will need to be watching the stock market closely this week since there is and have been no substantial economic reports.  Mortgage Bonds will be reacting opposite stocks.

Mortgage Rates Predictions

 

The Fannie Mae Bonds +3bp on the day @ 100.72.  We saw .125% Improvement in rates since yesterday.  Rates are Holding.

Conforming No Points & 1%

30 Fixed  6.000% | 5.750%

15 Fixed 5.500% | 5.250%

7/1 Arm 5.750% | 5.250%

5/1 Arm 5.375% | 5.000%

3/1 Arm 5.375% | 4.750%

30 Fixed FHA 6.000%

15 Fixed FHA 6.000%

Jumbo No Points & 1%

30 Fixed N/A | 7.000%

15 Fixed 6.750% | 6.250%

7/1 Arm 6.625% | 5.875%

5/1 Arm 6.375% | 5.625%

3/1 Arm 5.875.% | 5.125%

1/1 Arm 6.875% | 4.875%

 

(This information has been compiled for Real Estate Professionals and is not intended for public distribution as it does not comply with REG Z Truth-In-Lending disclosure requirements.)

Mortgage Rates Predicitons | 5.7.08

 

The Fannie Mae Bonds +34bp on the day.  Rates should improve.

Conforming No Points & 1%

30 Fixed  6.125% | 5.875%

15 Fixed 5.625% | 5.375%

7/1 Arm 5.875% | 5.375%

5/1 Arm 5.625% | 5.125%

3/1 Arm 5.500% | 4.875%

30 Fixed FHA 6.000%

15 Fixed FHA 5.500%

Jumbo No Points & 1%

30 Fixed N/A | 7.125%

15 Fixed 6.875% | 6.250%

7/1 Arm 6.875% | 6.125%

5/1 Arm 6.500% | 5.875%

3/1 Arm 6.000% | 5.250%

1/1 Arm 6.875% | 5.000%

 

(This information has been compiled for Real Estate Professionals and is not intended for public distribution as it does not comply with REG Z Truth-In-Lending disclosure requirements.)

Black Gold inventories help Mortgage Bonds +19bp

Crude Inventories | Reported 5,654,000 | Prior 3,848,000 | MODEST

Crude Inventories reported much higher than expected resulting in some of the commodities money being invested in Mortgage Backed Securities.  Maybe we won’t continue to see $120.00+ oil prices… maybe that’s just wishful thinking.

Economic Reports for week of May 5, 2008

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index | Reported 52.0 | Est 49.5 | Prior 49.6 | MODEST

Crude Inventories | Reported [WED 5.7] | Prior 3,848,000 | MODEST

Initial Jobless Claims | Reported [THU 5.8] | Est 370,000 | Prior 380,000 | MODEST

Balance of Trade | Reported [FRI 5.9] | Est -$61,300,000,000 | Prior -$62,300,000,000 | MODEST

This is a light week for economic reports.  Mortgage backed securities will basically react to the Stock market and levels of support and resistance created by moving averages.

Feds Cut Rate coming soon…

FOMC Meeting | Reported [1:15pm Central] | ELEVATED

ADP Employment Report | Reported +10,000 | Est -55,000 | Prior 8,000 | MODEST

Employment Cost Index | Reported 0.7% | Est 0.8% | Prior 0.8% | ELEVATED

GDP | Reported 0.6% | Est 0.4% | Prior 0.6% | MODEST

GDP Chain Deflator | Reported 2.6% | Est 3.o% | Prior 2.4% | ELEVATED

Chicago PMI | Reported 48.3 | Est 48.5 | Prior 48.2 | ELEVATED

Crude Inventories | Reported [10:30E] | Prior 2,421,000 | MODEST

The markets appear to be anxiously awaiting the Feds Cut Rate announcement today.  The notoriously misleading ADP report came in much better than expectations signally job growth.  Friday we will see the real Employment Report to gauge the economy more accurately.  The employment cost index, GDP, and GDP Chain Deflator all come in better than the revised expectations.  GDP Chain Deflator is an important inflation index, so it coming in better than expectations is actually a good thing for Mortgage Backed Bonds.  If the Fed has decided to hold off on rate cuts because they believe the economy has shown signs of recovery, that will reassure bonds traders that inflation will not continue to be ignored and should be good for Mortgage Rates.

Consumer Confidence worse than expected for April 2008

Consumer Confidence | Reported 62.3 | Est 63.2 | Prior 64.5 | MODEST

Consumer Confidence was worse than expectations at 62.3.  So far the bond market has reacted favorably to the news.  Mortgage Backed Securities are up +12bp on the day.  With the 2 day FOMC meeting beginning today and a week packed with economic news, we can expect to see increased volatility.

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