Mortgage Rates Predictions

  

  

  

  

  

  

June 3, 2008 | Rates are still heading higher…

Yesterday the Mortgage Bonds showed a solid recovery during the end of the day to close at 99.59 actually up +25bp from their open of 99.34.  This was due to losses in the stock market.   The 200 day moving average has still been the Mortgage Bonds personal struggle, currently at 99.51.  This morning Mortgage Backed Securities seam to be losing the fight as they are down -19bp on the day at a price of 99.41.  Today there are no scheduled economic indicators being released.  The fate of Fannie Mae Bonds will be in the hands of stocks, oil, scheduled public speeches, and the 200 day moving average.  Let’s hope tomorrow we get some bond friendly news to get mortgage rates lower again. 

Daily Mortgage Rates Predictions June 02

  

  

  

  

  

  

Rates are still heading higher. 

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Survey beats expectations this morning.  This was the only scheduled economic indicator released today.   Wachovia released it’s CEO Kennedy Thompson today due to continued backlash from Sub-Prime Mortgages.  The Nation’s 5th largest bank lost half of its stock value from last year.  With the ISM report being positive and looming inflation fears, the 200 day moving average appears to be out of reach for mortgage bonds any time soon.  Currently, the Fannie Mae Mortgage Backed Securities are +9bp on the day at 99.28 on the news about Wachovia and struggling airlines.  That is actually -12bp lower since the ISM reported at 10:00am.  We will be keeping our eyes on the stock market to see signs of pain in the economy that may be helpful for low risk mortgage backed securities.

Daily Mortgage Rate Predictions

  

  

  

  

  

  

Rates are heading higher… Looks like the 200 day moving average couldn’t hold.

The 200 day moving average was broken this morning.  The GPD was lower than expectations of 1.0%, but showed growth from the 0.6% Q4 2007.  Yesterday the Treasury Auction of 2 Year Notes was not received well.  Today the Treasury will be selling 5 Year Notes at 1:00pm.  The 200 Day moving average was an important line for bonds to cross.  The last time it was broken mortgage rates ran to the upper 6′s.  Currently the FNMA Bond is down -69bp at 98.78.  This kind of volatility was unheard of last year.

Daily Mortgage Rates Predictions

Rates will be Heading Down since the 200 day moving average held up.

The better than estimated Durable Goods Orders helped drive Bond prices down to touch the 200 day moving average this morning.  As predicted the floor of support at 99.46 held, but the -64bp loss will have cost us to lose at least .125% on the 30 Year Fixed Rates this morning.  Crude Inventories will be reported shortly.  Since the Mortgage Backed Securities are currently only down -34bp on the day [+9bp since most rates were issued and a long way from the -64bp] Mortgage Rates should be heading up.  We will be closely monitoring the stock market to see how it reacts to the Crude Inventories, hopefully stock are down and Mortgage Bond prices increase giving us improved rates today.  Tomorrow the GDP Chain Deflator signaling inflation under control would be what we need to get back in the 5′s.

Grau Perspective on Mortgage Rates for Wednesday May 21

Crude Inventories 5/17 | Reported -5,317,000 | Prior 176,000 | MODEST

FOMC Minutes 4/30 | Reported [Wed] | ELEVATED

Mortgage Backed Securities are currently -22bp on the day trading at $100.62.  We have seen solid gains the previous 5 trading days.  Bond prices have varied from 99.4375 – 100.90625 yesterday.  Today @ 2:00pm ET the Fed will release Minutes regarding last months Fed Meeting.  With Oil hitting $132.00 a barrel today, inflation concerns and Food and Energy’s impact on the economy has to been on the Feds agenda.  Now would be a good time to lock in some of those gains we have made the last few days since we could see INCREASING mortgage rates.

Mortgage Rates Predictions

 

Mortgage Rates Predictions  

The Fannie Mae Bond is +35bp on the day @ 100.16.  The 200 day moving average held up.  Initial Jobless claims, Empire State Index, Capacity Utilization, and Industrial Production all reported worse than expected results.  The Philadelphia Fed Index was better than predicted, but still bad.  With the recent talk of inflation concerns, the stock market will not be counting on any more stimuli from Fed Rate Cuts.  When we receive weak economic news investors hopefully will get back to considering Mortgage Backed Securities as low risk safe investments… bring Mortgage Rates Down!  We should see continued improvement in rates today.

Conforming No Points & 1%

30 Fixed  6.000% | 5.750%

15 Fixed 5.750% | 5.375%

7/1 Arm 5.875% | 5.375%

5/1 Arm 5.625% | 5.125%

3/1 Arm 6.125% | 5.000%

30 Fixed FHA 6.125%

15 Fixed FHA 6.250%

Jumbo No Points & 1%

30 Fixed N/A | 7.125%

15 Fixed 7.000% | 6.375%

7/1 Arm 6.875% | 6.375%

5/1 Arm 6.750% | 6.125%

3/1 Arm 6.500% | 5.750%

1/1 Arm n/a | 5.125%

 

(This information has been compiled for Real Estate Professionals and is not intended for public distribution as it does not comply with REG Z Truth-In-Lending disclosure requirements.)

Mortgage Rates Predictions

 

Mortgage Rates Predictions  

The Fannie Mae Bond is -3bp on the day @ 99.62.  This morning the CPI Index was better than economist expected.  A modest CPI is a sign that inflation concerns may cool off.  The good inflation news benefited both the Stock and Bond market earlier this morning.  Unfortunately for mortgage rates, the stock market seams to be winning and some lenders have already increased rates this afternoon.  The 200 day moving average continues to be a solid support for bonds and if the Philly Fed Index is weak tomorrow we could see BETTER RATES TOMORROW.  The volatility is absolutely insane though.  If there are any layers or risk to your mortgage [ex. <720 credit, low down payment, ARM, JUMBO...] I still stand by my Lock and Close ASAP recommendation.  Notice the +.5% increase in a number of ARMs in the last couple of days!

 

Conforming No Points & 1%

30 Fixed  6.125% | 5.875%

15 Fixed 5.750% | 5.500%

7/1 Arm 5.500% | 5.375%

5/1 Arm 5.750% | 5.125%

3/1 Arm 5.625% | 5.000%

30 Fixed FHA 6.250%

15 Fixed FHA 6.375%

Jumbo No Points & 1%

30 Fixed N/A | 7.250%

15 Fixed 7.000% | 6.375%

7/1 Arm 6.875% | 6.375%

5/1 Arm 6.750% | 6.125%

3/1 Arm 6.500% | 5.750%

1/1 Arm n/a | 5.125%

 

(This information has been compiled for Real Estate Professionals and is not intended for public distribution as it does not comply with REG Z Truth-In-Lending disclosure requirements.)

Mortgage Rates Predictions

 

The Fannie Mae Bonds -6bp on the day @ 100.88.  We saw .125% improvement in rates since yesterday.  Mortgage Rates are leaning towards INCREASING.

Conforming No Points & 1%

30 Fixed  5.875% | 5.625%

15 Fixed 5.375% | 5.125%

7/1 Arm 5.500% | 5.125%

5/1 Arm 5.250% | 4.875%

3/1 Arm 5.250% | 4.625%

30 Fixed FHA 6.000%

15 Fixed FHA 6.000%

Jumbo No Points & 1%

30 Fixed N/A | 7.125%

15 Fixed 6.625% | 6.125%

7/1 Arm 6.250% | 5.875%

5/1 Arm 6.125% | 5.500%

3/1 Arm 6.000% | 5.250%

1/1 Arm 7.000% | 4.750%

 

(This information has been compiled for Real Estate Professionals and is not intended for public distribution as it does not comply with REG Z Truth-In-Lending disclosure requirements.)

Mortgage Rates Predictions

 

The Fannie Mae Bonds +3bp on the day @ 100.72.  We saw .125% Improvement in rates since yesterday.  Rates are Holding.

Conforming No Points & 1%

30 Fixed  6.000% | 5.750%

15 Fixed 5.500% | 5.250%

7/1 Arm 5.750% | 5.250%

5/1 Arm 5.375% | 5.000%

3/1 Arm 5.375% | 4.750%

30 Fixed FHA 6.000%

15 Fixed FHA 6.000%

Jumbo No Points & 1%

30 Fixed N/A | 7.000%

15 Fixed 6.750% | 6.250%

7/1 Arm 6.625% | 5.875%

5/1 Arm 6.375% | 5.625%

3/1 Arm 5.875.% | 5.125%

1/1 Arm 6.875% | 4.875%

 

(This information has been compiled for Real Estate Professionals and is not intended for public distribution as it does not comply with REG Z Truth-In-Lending disclosure requirements.)

Mortgage Rates Predicitons | 5.7.08

 

The Fannie Mae Bonds +34bp on the day.  Rates should improve.

Conforming No Points & 1%

30 Fixed  6.125% | 5.875%

15 Fixed 5.625% | 5.375%

7/1 Arm 5.875% | 5.375%

5/1 Arm 5.625% | 5.125%

3/1 Arm 5.500% | 4.875%

30 Fixed FHA 6.000%

15 Fixed FHA 5.500%

Jumbo No Points & 1%

30 Fixed N/A | 7.125%

15 Fixed 6.875% | 6.250%

7/1 Arm 6.875% | 6.125%

5/1 Arm 6.500% | 5.875%

3/1 Arm 6.000% | 5.250%

1/1 Arm 6.875% | 5.000%

 

(This information has been compiled for Real Estate Professionals and is not intended for public distribution as it does not comply with REG Z Truth-In-Lending disclosure requirements.)

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